Rate & Predict American Idol

I was impressed by Michael Sarver tonight.  But looking at the bigger picture, I believe Michael proved something: that the wild-card round sucks.  The general consenses prior to tonight was that Michael had no business in the Top 13, especially over Anoop Desai (see this post at idolblog).

Based on tonight’s performances, you could argue that America, and also the wild-card round, got it right.  They chose the better singer (Michael) and didn’t choose the weaker one (Anoop).  While this is all true, my problem with this is we only got to see each contestant perform one full-length song.  In the statistical world, each contestant had a sample size of exactly 1.  It’s pretty ridiculous to judge someone based on one performance.

And this is where editors’ choice enters the picture.  If everyone is given one song, then those who have been shown on air more than others (Danny Gokey, Lil Rounds) have an advantage over those who didn’t get much at all (Felicia Barton, Ricky Braddy, Ju’Not Joyner).

I feel last season’s format was MUCH better.  For all but 4 of the semi-finalists, we saw each perform more than 1 song, giving each person a chance to redeem themselves after a poor performance or song choice.  This year, over half of the semi-finalists were cut after 1 song.  As Michael (and also Matt Giraud) proved, maybe you just need a second song to show how good you really are.