Rate & Predict American Idol

Here’s an updated look at our Accumulated Performance Order (APO) metric after 5 weeks.  Again, this is the sum of the performance orders each week (e.g. going 1st = 1 point, going 10th = 10 points, etc.).  The higher the number, the more likely the contestant has performed near the end of the show, when voters are more likely to remember their performances.

Here are the APO numbers after the Top 8 Week (max APO = 51, min APO = 5, average APO = 26.5

1. Adam Lambert (40 points)
2. Matt Giraud (37 points)
3. Allison Iraheta (29 points)
4. Anoop Desai (27 points)
5. Danny Gokey (24 points)
6. Lil Rounds (22 points)
7. Kris Allen (22 points)

Clearly, Adam has disproportionately performed at the end of the show more than any other contestant.  Two things to note about Adam:

• The earliest he performed was 5th out of 11
• In the last three weeks, he’s performed 8th of 10, 8th of 9, and 8th of 8

It’s obvious that Adam is the front runner in the competition.  The question is, is he the front runner because he’s better than everyone else, or because his performances are easier to remember because they happened at the end of the show?

The answer is probably “yes”.  As mentioned in a USA Today article last year, the performance order isn’t randomly chosen.  In order to increase ratings, the producers may likely have placed Adam toward the end BECAUSE he would likely have given the best performance.