Rate & Predict American Idol

In my ongoing effort to accurately predict the American Idol winner, I’ve begun tracking how the gambling odds on each of the Idols changes over time.  If an Idol’s odds go down, this suggests that the contestant is gaining popularity among the “wise guys”.

For those unfamiliar with gambling, a given bet is described with a ratio.  The first number in the ratio represents the payout of the bet if you win, and the second number represents the amount you have to initially bet to win the first number.  For example, if Casey James’s odds to win Idol are 8/1, that means you win $8 for every $1 you bet.

A lower ratio generally indicates a “favorite”, and a higher ratio a “longshot”.  Casey James’s 8/1 odds make him a favorite over John Park’s 50/1, because in order to win, say $50, you’d only need to risk $1 with John Park, but a little over $6 on Casey James.

I took a snapshot of odds from bodog.com on 2/22, 3/2, and early this morning 3/3.  There have definitely been some movers over the past week.

• Aaron Kelly – Started as a 50/1 longshot, which was 2nd lowest among all contestants.  Today, he’s at 14/1, right in the middle of the pack.
• Casey James – Started as a strong 8/1 favorite, but has gotten even more popular, with his odds going down to 3/1.  He is currently the gamblers’ pick to win American Idol.
• Lee Dewyze - Simon’s kind words to Lee must have had an impact on the gamblers’ collective psyche, as Lee started a 50/1 long shot, but now stands at 10/1.  Lilly Scott also had a meteoric rise, going from 40/1 to 15/1.

While there were plenty of Idols garnering postiive buzz, there was plenty of negative to go around

• Tim Urban – The so-called 25th contestant isn’t getting much love from the wise guys, starting out at 25/1 but plummeting to a 100/1 longshot, the Idol with the highest odds.
• Haeley Vaughn – Someone who seemed very popular during Hollywood Week, Haeley plummeted from a solid 18/1 pick to a dismal 70/1 longshot.
• Jermaine Sellers - Similar story here.  Once the early favorite, Jermaine’s stock has definitely plunged, down to a 50/1 bet.

Different sports books and owners will have different odds, so their odds might differ slightly from Bodog’s (but I’m guessing they’ll all converge to similar odds eventually).  If you live in a country that allows online gambling, feel free to make your own bets, but not because I told you to!

Current odds:

1. Casey James (3/1)
2. Andrew Garcia (4/1)
3. Katie Stevens (6/1)
4. Crystal Bowersox (7/1)
5. Lee Dewyze + Siobhan Magnus (10/1)
6. Didi Benami (12/1)
7. Aaron Kelly (14/1)
8. Lilly Scott (15/1)
9. Michelle Delmaor + Katelynn Epperly (20/1)
10. Alex Lambert (25/1)
11. Lacey Brown (30/1)
12. Todrick Hall (35/1)
13. Michael Lynche + Paige Miles (40/1)
14. John Park + Jermaine Sellers (50/1)
15. Haeley Vaughn (70/1)
16. Tim Urban (100/1)

Bets I would take: Siobhan or Katie for winner, longshot possibilities on Paige or Katelynn

Bets I wouldn’t take: Crystal at 7/1, Casey at 3/1, Lacey at 30/1