American Idol Season 9 has so far been uncompetitive, as the show has devolved into Crystal Bowersox and the 8 dwarfs.  Crystal is, literally, the odds-on favorite to win American Idol, and it’s not very close.

To illustrate her dominance, I’ve created an infographic using the gambling data and judges’ quotes of which I’d been keeping track.  At the start of the Semi-final round on Feb. 22, Crystal was one of the early favorites at 15/2 odds (meaning, for every $2 you bet, you would win back $15), but still behind Audition Round favorites Andrew Garcia and Katie Stevens.

Now, Crystal is such a huge favorite that she is a less-than-even money bet.  To win $4, you have to wager $5.  If only I put money on Crystal before the Semi-final round…

Rewatching last week’s Idol, I had the nagging feeling that Siobhan Magnus always seemed to perform toward the end of episodes.  As we know, having the last spot in the competition (colloquially known as the “pimp spot”) greatly reduces an Idol’s chance for elimination, since their performance is freshest in memory once the phone lines are opened.

To check my gut feeling, I developed a crude metric to determine which contestant tend to perform toward the end of shows.  I call it “accumulated performance order”.  A contestant performing first gets 1 point, the second performer gets 2 points, and so on.  Summing this over every non-audition/non-Hollywood Week episode, and we get “accumulated performance order”.

Here are the results over the past 5 episodes (3 semi-finals, 2 finals):

1. Siobhan Magnus – 41 (average performance spot: 8th)
2. Crystal Bowersox – 36 (7th)
3. Andrew Garcia – 35 (7th)
4. Casey James, Katie Stevens, Aaron Kelly, and Didi Benami – 31 (6th)
5. Lee Dewyze – 28 (5th-6th)
6. Tim Urban – 26 (5th)
7. Michael Lynche – 25 (5th)

So I was right.  Siobhan has only performed in the first half on an episode once (Semi-finals, Top 8 Girls), and twice has received the pimp spot.  Crystal is not far behind, getting the pimp spot once and the 2nd to last spot twice.  However, she’s also performed first, which is definitely not where you want to be performing.

Do you think performance order actually matters?  Let me know in the comments!

New power rankings show that American Idol Season 9 has devolved into Crystal Bowersox and everyone else.  Crystal has an average power ranking of 1.8, which means nearly everyone has voted her as either the 1st or 2nd best contestant… which isn’t much of a surprise.

There are 4 clear tiers of contestants:

• The favorite (Crystal)
• The contenders (Siobhan Magnus, Big Mike Lynche)
• Good not great (Didi Benami, Lee Dewyze, Casey James)
• Everyone else

It’s so sad to see early favorites Andrew Garcia and Katie Stevens free-fall out of contention.

To make these power rankings more comprehensive, I’ve started scouring the web for power rankings from popular blogs.  These power rankings will also show up in the sidebar in this blog.

USA Today’s Idol Chatter blog recently debuted their Season 9 “Idol Meter”, which is described as “a pseudoscientific fast-track formula to gauge each singer’s momentum”.  The meter gives a score to each contestant out of 100 possible points, based on 8 different variables.

While I applaud the efforts of the USA Today crew, and because my site has many of the same intentions, I find the meter to be a little clunky.  It’s great that they have 8 variables going into their equation, but unfortunately I don’t understand the logic behind the scoring system.

For example, a positive comment from Simon is worth 9 points, but one from Randy, Kara, or Ellen is just 3 points.  I understand the assertion that Simon has more influence on voting than the other judges, but 3x as much influence?  I’m skeptical.

Same for the “online buzz” metric, where you receive either 14, 10, or 5 points for a high number of Google searches or tweets.  Sounds great in theory, but we’re assuming the Internet population is an accurate reflection of the American Idol voting base.  And if we’re going to be looking at Twitter, we have to take into account that teens don’t tweet as much as adults do.

Go to USA Today’s Idol Meter

In my ongoing effort to accurately predict the American Idol winner, I’ve begun tracking how the gambling odds on each of the Idols changes over time.  If an Idol’s odds go down, this suggests that the contestant is gaining popularity among the “wise guys”.

For those unfamiliar with gambling, a given bet is described with a ratio.  The first number in the ratio represents the payout of the bet if you win, and the second number represents the amount you have to initially bet to win the first number.  For example, if Casey James’s odds to win Idol are 8/1, that means you win $8 for every $1 you bet.

A lower ratio generally indicates a “favorite”, and a higher ratio a “longshot”.  Casey James’s 8/1 odds make him a favorite over John Park’s 50/1, because in order to win, say $50, you’d only need to risk $1 with John Park, but a little over $6 on Casey James.

I took a snapshot of odds from bodog.com on 2/22, 3/2, and early this morning 3/3.  There have definitely been some movers over the past week.

• Aaron Kelly – Started as a 50/1 longshot, which was 2nd lowest among all contestants.  Today, he’s at 14/1, right in the middle of the pack.
• Casey James – Started as a strong 8/1 favorite, but has gotten even more popular, with his odds going down to 3/1.  He is currently the gamblers’ pick to win American Idol.
• Lee Dewyze - Simon’s kind words to Lee must have had an impact on the gamblers’ collective psyche, as Lee started a 50/1 long shot, but now stands at 10/1.  Lilly Scott also had a meteoric rise, going from 40/1 to 15/1.

While there were plenty of Idols garnering postiive buzz, there was plenty of negative to go around

• Tim Urban – The so-called 25th contestant isn’t getting much love from the wise guys, starting out at 25/1 but plummeting to a 100/1 longshot, the Idol with the highest odds.
• Haeley Vaughn – Someone who seemed very popular during Hollywood Week, Haeley plummeted from a solid 18/1 pick to a dismal 70/1 longshot.
• Jermaine Sellers - Similar story here.  Once the early favorite, Jermaine’s stock has definitely plunged, down to a 50/1 bet.

Different sports books and owners will have different odds, so their odds might differ slightly from Bodog’s (but I’m guessing they’ll all converge to similar odds eventually).  If you live in a country that allows online gambling, feel free to make your own bets, but not because I told you to!

Current odds:

1. Casey James (3/1)
2. Andrew Garcia (4/1)
3. Katie Stevens (6/1)
4. Crystal Bowersox (7/1)
5. Lee Dewyze + Siobhan Magnus (10/1)
6. Didi Benami (12/1)
7. Aaron Kelly (14/1)
8. Lilly Scott (15/1)
9. Michelle Delmaor + Katelynn Epperly (20/1)
10. Alex Lambert (25/1)
11. Lacey Brown (30/1)
12. Todrick Hall (35/1)
13. Michael Lynche + Paige Miles (40/1)
14. John Park + Jermaine Sellers (50/1)
15. Haeley Vaughn (70/1)
16. Tim Urban (100/1)

Bets I would take: Siobhan or Katie for winner, longshot possibilities on Paige or Katelynn

Bets I wouldn’t take: Crystal at 7/1, Casey at 3/1, Lacey at 30/1

Spending more time on screen doesn’t necessarily lead to more popularity, but spending very little time on screen does seem to translate to less popularity.

By counting the number of Facebook Fans and Twitter Followers that each contestant has amassed on their official American Idol-based accounts, we can roughly measure each contestant’s initial popularity.  Below is a quick-and-dirty graph, ordered from fewest minutes on screen (Paige Miles & Joe Munoz) to the most (Michael Lynche).

The 3 Idols with the least amount of screen time (Paige, Joe, and Michelle Delamor) also have the fewest number of fans & followers.  But for the remaining 21 contestants, there doesn’t seem to be much correlation between screen time and popularity.

John Park, the 4th least-viewed contestant, has the most Facebook Fans and the 2nd most total followers.  Meanwhile, Michael Lynche, the most viewed Idol, ranks as the 18th most popular of 24.

This is all pretty intuitive: it’s hard to be a fan of someone you haven’t seen, but once you’ve seen someone, you can decide whether you like him or her.  It doesn’t necessarily help if you’re shown more, but it definitely hurts if you’re not shown enough.

Of course, this simple analysis might not be indicative of future voting.  The data represents only about 60,000 fans, a tiny slice of the 30 million weekly viewers.  Also, this will be biased toward the Internet geeks (like me), which might not necessarily be representative of the entire American Idol voting population.

So if you happen to like Paige, Joe, or Michelle this week, and want to see them perform again, you should probably vote for them, because they’ll need the help more than the others.

While analyzing the screen times for our Top 24 contestants, I noticed there were a chunk of contestants that we met during the initial auditions, but never heard from again.  Most were forgettable, but there were a couple that received a lot of initial screen time, and I personally wonder how they performed during Hollywood Week, or if they attended at all!

Here are a few contestants from the first 8 audition episodes who were never explicitly mentioned in the 4 Hollywood Week episodes.

• Chris Golightly – Definitely the most controversial of the non-mentions, Chris had reportedly made the Top 24 before being disqualified, and replaced by Tim Urban.  Rewind the final moments of the final Hollywood Week episode, and you’ll see Chris off to the right side of the screen, among the Top 24 finalists.  You can read more about this on other Idol blogs, like Joe’s Place.
• Mike Davis – Boston contestant who worked as an “actor” on the Codzilla speedboat.  Singing The Beatles’ Yesterday, he was described as a confident young man.  I didn’t think he was very good.
• Holly Harden – The Atlanta contestant who dressed up as a guitar.  For such a big personality, I would have thought she would be shown again.
• Jim Ranger – The worship pastor from the Los Angeles audition.  There were questions about whether he could handle his commitments to family and church.  However, I believe he was shown bobbing his head during Andrew Garcia’s “Straight Up” performance.  He ended up being cut at the same time as our favorite country girl, Vanessa Wolfe.
• Joshua Blaylock - The contestant who lacked confidence, whom Simon said had a good voice for a 13-year-old, who also told Simon to shut up (please).  They never called him out, but he got eliminated on Day 1, in the same line as beatboxer Jay Stone and former Barney kid Erica Rhodes.
• Danelle Hayes - The karaoke host with a 3-year old son.  She broke down during the audition.  I thought she had a great voice, and could flourish in the competition, but unfortunately, it seems she had some legal trouble that the producers did not want to deal with.

I have been estimating the amount of screen time each contestant has received, with the results posted here.

Through last week’s Hollywood episodes, there have been some contestants that have been shown much more than others.  Let’s take 2 of our recently-named Top 24: Michael Lynche and Lee DeWyze.  One has been on screen for nearly 7 1/2 minutes (Big Mike), and the other has been shown for 30 seconds.

While I do believe voters will ulitmately choose the more talented Idols over the more familiar ones, familiarity is still important, especially when the talent gap between contestants is narrow.

Note that Kris Allen, Season 8’s Idol winner, was shown in the Audition and Hollywood episodes for a mere 1 minute and 50 seconds, showing that his lack of air time didn’t hinder his talent and future success.  However, take last year’s semi-finalist Ricky Braddy, who arguably had just as much talent and as much air time, but couldn’t even make the finals.

Do you think air times matter?  I’d love to know your thoughts.

Based on most recent predictions, our users predict Danny Gokey will be going home!  The Danny Gokey who has never appeared in the bottom 3.  It’s pretty close between him and Kris Allen.  I guess we’ll see tonight!

UPDATE:

• MSNBC users have Danny as the lowest-rated Idol this week (Link)
• So do Burke and Bunny (Link)
• Laura from idolreview.net thinks so too (Link)

So I guess it would be a surprise if Danny DIDN’T leave?  Adam and Allison have the highest rated performances this week.

After 6 weeks of competition, which American Idol contestant has gotten the highest ratings from our users?

Here are the average performance rating for each of the contestants (contestant name – average performance rating):

1. Adam Lambert – 8.00
2. Kris Allen – 7.35
3. Danny Gokey – 7.20
4. Allison Iraheta – 7.19
5. Matt Giraud – 7.18
6. Anoop Desai – 6.67
7. Lil Rounds – 5.69

The order is not too surprising.  But Kris Allen as the 2nd highest ranked Idol?  VERY interesting.  Honestly, I think he has outperformed the other guy front-runner (Danny), but he doesn’t get the same hype as him. Personally, I think this goes back to how much screen time these contestants received before the Audition rounds, where Kris basically got none.

Can Kris sneak his way into the finals?  Probably not.  I don’t believe he can afford a poor performance the way Danny or Lil can.  Or maybe his looks give him an edge… I dunno.

Side note: I find it interesting that, during the Top 36 round, 4 of the remaining 7 contestants came from Group 2 (Adam, Matt, Allison, Kris).  In fact almost half of the Top 13 (6 of 13 — add Jasmine and Megan) came from that Group 2. And Group 3 was the worst, with only Lil representing for them.  Wow, good group!