All the gambling money shifted to Lee Dewyze this past week, and tonight’s result confirmed the gamblers’ collective suspicion.

But can you imagine if you bet on Lee to win at the start of the semi-finals?  On February 22, you could have won $50 for every $1 bet.  Meaning, your typical $20 bet would pay out a cool $1,000.

Notice that the last 2 Idol winners have been dark-haired guitar players from the middle of the country, who were barely televised in the audition rounds.  Could it be possible that these under-exposed Idols have the best gambling value?  I know next year, I’ll be checking out the long shots.

According to Bodog, Lee Dewyze is a 2/5 favorite to win.

This is a far cry from the trends throughout this American Idol season.  Crystal has been the clear favorite up until this point, having been a less-than-even-money favorite since April 5.

Do the gambling wise guys know something we don’t?  Personally, I’d take the currently-posted 19/10 odds on Crystal.

American Idol Season 9 has so far been uncompetitive, as the show has devolved into Crystal Bowersox and the 8 dwarfs.  Crystal is, literally, the odds-on favorite to win American Idol, and it’s not very close.

To illustrate her dominance, I’ve created an infographic using the gambling data and judges’ quotes of which I’d been keeping track.  At the start of the Semi-final round on Feb. 22, Crystal was one of the early favorites at 15/2 odds (meaning, for every $2 you bet, you would win back $15), but still behind Audition Round favorites Andrew Garcia and Katie Stevens.

Now, Crystal is such a huge favorite that she is a less-than-even money bet.  To win $4, you have to wager $5.  If only I put money on Crystal before the Semi-final round…

Tim Urban is clearly the worst of the remaining Idol contestants, which itself is arguably the worst Top 12 in the show’s history.  Despite this consensus, we can’t seem to get rid of Tim Urban.  Is the Vote For The Worst site really impacting votes that much?

Let’s assume that they are.  Maybe when predicting the next elimination, we should choose the 2nd worst contestant.  On VFTW’s voting poll, that’s Andrew Garcia.  Watch out for Andrew to be in the bottom 3 this week.

Rewatching last week’s Idol, I had the nagging feeling that Siobhan Magnus always seemed to perform toward the end of episodes.  As we know, having the last spot in the competition (colloquially known as the “pimp spot”) greatly reduces an Idol’s chance for elimination, since their performance is freshest in memory once the phone lines are opened.

To check my gut feeling, I developed a crude metric to determine which contestant tend to perform toward the end of shows.  I call it “accumulated performance order”.  A contestant performing first gets 1 point, the second performer gets 2 points, and so on.  Summing this over every non-audition/non-Hollywood Week episode, and we get “accumulated performance order”.

Here are the results over the past 5 episodes (3 semi-finals, 2 finals):

1. Siobhan Magnus – 41 (average performance spot: 8th)
2. Crystal Bowersox – 36 (7th)
3. Andrew Garcia – 35 (7th)
4. Casey James, Katie Stevens, Aaron Kelly, and Didi Benami – 31 (6th)
5. Lee Dewyze – 28 (5th-6th)
6. Tim Urban – 26 (5th)
7. Michael Lynche – 25 (5th)

So I was right.  Siobhan has only performed in the first half on an episode once (Semi-finals, Top 8 Girls), and twice has received the pimp spot.  Crystal is not far behind, getting the pimp spot once and the 2nd to last spot twice.  However, she’s also performed first, which is definitely not where you want to be performing.

Do you think performance order actually matters?  Let me know in the comments!

New power rankings show that American Idol Season 9 has devolved into Crystal Bowersox and everyone else.  Crystal has an average power ranking of 1.8, which means nearly everyone has voted her as either the 1st or 2nd best contestant… which isn’t much of a surprise.

There are 4 clear tiers of contestants:

• The favorite (Crystal)
• The contenders (Siobhan Magnus, Big Mike Lynche)
• Good not great (Didi Benami, Lee Dewyze, Casey James)
• Everyone else

It’s so sad to see early favorites Andrew Garcia and Katie Stevens free-fall out of contention.

To make these power rankings more comprehensive, I’ve started scouring the web for power rankings from popular blogs.  These power rankings will also show up in the sidebar in this blog.

USA Today’s Idol Chatter blog recently debuted their Season 9 “Idol Meter”, which is described as “a pseudoscientific fast-track formula to gauge each singer’s momentum”.  The meter gives a score to each contestant out of 100 possible points, based on 8 different variables.

While I applaud the efforts of the USA Today crew, and because my site has many of the same intentions, I find the meter to be a little clunky.  It’s great that they have 8 variables going into their equation, but unfortunately I don’t understand the logic behind the scoring system.

For example, a positive comment from Simon is worth 9 points, but one from Randy, Kara, or Ellen is just 3 points.  I understand the assertion that Simon has more influence on voting than the other judges, but 3x as much influence?  I’m skeptical.

Same for the “online buzz” metric, where you receive either 14, 10, or 5 points for a high number of Google searches or tweets.  Sounds great in theory, but we’re assuming the Internet population is an accurate reflection of the American Idol voting base.  And if we’re going to be looking at Twitter, we have to take into account that teens don’t tweet as much as adults do.

Go to USA Today’s Idol Meter

I love gambling lines, because they help reveal the opinions of those in-the-know.  Online gambling site Bodog has updated their odds for the American Idol winner, as well as added new, interesting wagers.

Crystal Bowersox heads the list as a 7/4 favorite to win American Idol.  Early favorites Andrew Garcia and Katie Stevens have dropped down the list, coming in at 10/1 and 22/1, respectively.  Buoyed by strong performances in the semi-final rounds, screamin’ Siobhan Magnus (5/1), big Michael Lynche (5/1), Casey James (7/1), and Lee Dewyze (13/2) have emerged as Crystal’s toughest competition.

Just as interesting as predicting the winner, Bodog has introduced more “exotic” bets, where you can predict the last remaining male or female contestant, whether the winner will be male or female, and from which city the winner auditioned.  These are my favorite bets to predict, but then again, I’m the weird guy who likes betting on coin flips and Gatorade colors during the Super Bowl.

You can find the entire list of wagers on Bodog’s American Idol betting page.

In my ongoing effort to accurately predict the American Idol winner, I’ve begun tracking how the gambling odds on each of the Idols changes over time.  If an Idol’s odds go down, this suggests that the contestant is gaining popularity among the “wise guys”.

For those unfamiliar with gambling, a given bet is described with a ratio.  The first number in the ratio represents the payout of the bet if you win, and the second number represents the amount you have to initially bet to win the first number.  For example, if Casey James’s odds to win Idol are 8/1, that means you win $8 for every $1 you bet.

A lower ratio generally indicates a “favorite”, and a higher ratio a “longshot”.  Casey James’s 8/1 odds make him a favorite over John Park’s 50/1, because in order to win, say $50, you’d only need to risk $1 with John Park, but a little over $6 on Casey James.

I took a snapshot of odds from bodog.com on 2/22, 3/2, and early this morning 3/3.  There have definitely been some movers over the past week.

• Aaron Kelly – Started as a 50/1 longshot, which was 2nd lowest among all contestants.  Today, he’s at 14/1, right in the middle of the pack.
• Casey James – Started as a strong 8/1 favorite, but has gotten even more popular, with his odds going down to 3/1.  He is currently the gamblers’ pick to win American Idol.
• Lee Dewyze - Simon’s kind words to Lee must have had an impact on the gamblers’ collective psyche, as Lee started a 50/1 long shot, but now stands at 10/1.  Lilly Scott also had a meteoric rise, going from 40/1 to 15/1.

While there were plenty of Idols garnering postiive buzz, there was plenty of negative to go around

• Tim Urban – The so-called 25th contestant isn’t getting much love from the wise guys, starting out at 25/1 but plummeting to a 100/1 longshot, the Idol with the highest odds.
• Haeley Vaughn – Someone who seemed very popular during Hollywood Week, Haeley plummeted from a solid 18/1 pick to a dismal 70/1 longshot.
• Jermaine Sellers - Similar story here.  Once the early favorite, Jermaine’s stock has definitely plunged, down to a 50/1 bet.

Different sports books and owners will have different odds, so their odds might differ slightly from Bodog’s (but I’m guessing they’ll all converge to similar odds eventually).  If you live in a country that allows online gambling, feel free to make your own bets, but not because I told you to!

Current odds:

1. Casey James (3/1)
2. Andrew Garcia (4/1)
3. Katie Stevens (6/1)
4. Crystal Bowersox (7/1)
5. Lee Dewyze + Siobhan Magnus (10/1)
6. Didi Benami (12/1)
7. Aaron Kelly (14/1)
8. Lilly Scott (15/1)
9. Michelle Delmaor + Katelynn Epperly (20/1)
10. Alex Lambert (25/1)
11. Lacey Brown (30/1)
12. Todrick Hall (35/1)
13. Michael Lynche + Paige Miles (40/1)
14. John Park + Jermaine Sellers (50/1)
15. Haeley Vaughn (70/1)
16. Tim Urban (100/1)

Bets I would take: Siobhan or Katie for winner, longshot possibilities on Paige or Katelynn

Bets I wouldn’t take: Crystal at 7/1, Casey at 3/1, Lacey at 30/1

Watching American Idol is enjoyable, but for me, predicting the eventual winner is more fun.

Reality Rate and Predict has a new feature: predict when each contestant will get eliminated.  Found on the home page, there are 5 choices: Top 24, Top 12, Top 5, Runner-Up, and Winner.  Top 24 means you think the contestant will get eliminated in the semifinal round, Top 12 means you think they’ll get eliminated between 6th and 12th place, and so on (I hope it’s pretty self-explanatory?).

Tell your friends about it.  It’s more fun when you can compare predictions against one another, so you can have that gratifying “I told you so” moment.